Conway, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

913
FXUS62 KILM 250537
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
137 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stalled across the region through tonight
resulting in the continued threat for shower and thunderstorm
activity. The boundary will lift north on Friday bringing a
downturn in rain coverage before a cold front Saturday kicks up
the coverage again. High pressure will follow Sunday into early
next week with dry conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Multiple areas of showers have amalgamated across the Pee Dee
region into a slow moving mass of thunderstorms with heavy rain.
Mesonet gauge reports as high as 1.71 inches at Jefferson Drive
in Florence confirm radar estimates in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch
range just southwest of downtown Florence. Convection should be
peaking in terms of coverage and intensity now, with a gradual
diminishing trend anticipated over the next couple of hours as
loss of daytime heating and overturning of the airmass reduces
available instability.

We continue to believe another night of fog and low clouds is
possible across South Carolina. Low visibility may also expand
northward across southeastern North Carolina, but the worst
conditions appear they will develop late tonight across the Pee
Dee region. It`s not impossible this area will see dense fog
(visibility < 0.25 miles) before sunrise.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Front stalled across northern SC and the adjacent coastal waters
will linger into this evening before lifting north as a warm front.
Moisture pooling along the stalled boundary in northern SC and
surface heating has SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg this afternoon.
Convergence along the sea breeze in this environment is producing
showers and thunderstorms along the southern edge of the forecast
area. This activity will continue for the next several hours with
both the sea breeze and outflow kicking off additional storms. Think
activity will continue spreading into the ILM forecast area with
inland SC favored. As time goes on some of the SC activity will
expand over portions of NC, although the best convection is likely
to remain across SC. The overall environment across NC, both at the
surface and aloft, is less favorable.

Convection may persist a bit longer than diurnal storms typically
do, a result of some weak PVA ahead of a sheared shortwave in
eastern GA/western SC. The front lifts north later this evening, but
the boundary itself is so weak it will be hard to discern from any
convective boundary remains or the sea breeze. Once it pushes north
low level southerly flow will increase boundary layer moisture and
the light to calm boundary layer winds will likely lead to some good
fog, especially for areas that have seen good rain in the last 24 to
36 hours. Have fog in the grids/forecast but could be a case of
needing to hit it harder in later updates. Lows will end up 7-10
degrees above normal.

Forecast area will be in the warm sector Fri with SBCAPE across the
area generally 1000-1500 J/kg. Southeast synoptic flow around the
west side of the high will limit convergence along the sea breeze
and the lack of strong triggers or support aloft will limit storm
development. There should be enough instability for diurnal
convection with outflow encouraging more storm development, however
coverage will be limited by the marginal nature of the environment.
Despite decent SBCAPE, low and mid-level lapse rates are marginal
and there is dry air present. Best chances will be across inland
areas, around and just after peak heating. Temperatures around
normal closer to the coast and slightly above normal inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A decent mid level short wave and associated convection will be
entering the area Friday evening from the west but as is
usually the case will fade withing site of the coast. A second
shortwave and associated front moves across late Saturday and
into the evening hours with another round and perhaps a broken
line of convection. Likely pops reside across the area at this
time but may need an adjustment downward especially Saturday
morning. Highs will be in the somewhat muggy lower to middle 80s
Saturday while much cooler and comfortable behind the system
Sunday in the middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The mid level trough that brings the cooler conditions
late in the weekend and into early next will be replaced by a
somewhat strong mid level ridge across the southeast. It appears
this setup is similar in nature to the pattern a week or so ago
where there was excellent moisture/convection in the Tennessee
Valley but just cant make much progress eastward. Long story short
the forecast is dry. In the seemingly well established pattern
probabilistic and deterministic guidance is in excellent agreement
in regards to temperatures. The headline of which will be middle to
upper 80s for highs late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low cigs and vsbys already starting to overspread SC as
expected, with pockets of IFR and LIFR likely through daybreak
esp. around KFLO and KCRE. Lower confidence for IFR at the other
terminals, but still at least a moderate confidence for MVFR
there. VFR conditions will gradually develop everywhere between
12-15z and continue through the day with only a low probability
of showers or storms affecting KILM, KLBT, and KFLO during the
afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Low to moderate confidence in MVFR/IFR at
all local airports late tonight into Saturday morning in low
clouds and fog. A cold front approaching Saturday could bring
additional restrictions in showers and thunderstorms. VFR
returns Saturday night through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Gradient across the waters remains ill-defined
as surface high continues drifting east. Winds will remain 10
kt or less with the only exception the potential for 10-15 kt
along the immediate coast this afternoon/evening due to the sea
breeze. The sea breeze will have less influence tomorrow due to
the larger scale southeast(onshore) flow. Seas around 2 ft into
Fri with potential for 2-3 ft later Fri as light onshore flow
becomes established. Seas will be a mix of an easterly swell and
an east to southeast wind wave with the swell being slightly
more dominant.

Friday Night through Tuesday...The marine forecast offers
really nothing unexpected as we near May and any frontal systems
that do make it across have little in the way of cold air
advection thus weaker winds. This will be the case Sunday when
northwest to northeast winds around 15 plus knots are the
highest of the forecast period. Before this a southwest flow
will be in place in the standard range of 10-15 knots. For early
next week a return flow develops but nothing is moving fast and
not until Wednesday or so will we see a full return to south to
southwest winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...III/SHK