Conway, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS62 KILM 031737
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1237 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will produce well below normal
temperatures into midweek. Temperatures will warm late
Wednesday into Thursday before another dry cold front drops
temperatures below freezing again by Thursday night. Rain
chances increase early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes are necessary to the ongoing forecast with
this update. Despite full sun, temperatures will struggle to
rise amidst strong cold advection.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few flurries and modestly enhanced cloud cover near the coast
are all the remaining sensible weather evidence of the
shortwave passing to the north late this morning, with enhanced
CAA being the main weather story for the rest of the day. No
significant changes were made to the near term forecast with the
latest update.

Previous Discussion...Longwave amplified upper trof will remain
entrenched across the Eastern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. this
period and beyond. A series of mid-level s/w trofs will continue
to keep this upper trof carved out and amplified across the
mentioned region. Some of the ccccoldest temps of the season to
occur across Northeast SC and Southeast NC, as CAA and a
tightened sfc pg yield gusty NW-N winds today. Max temps to only
climb into the 40s today, with normal highs in the upper 50s to
around 60.

Its during today, 850mb temps drop to between -6 and -9 degrees
C. Looking at 2 thickness schemes, the 1000-850mb thickness
bottoms out in the 1270s while the more traditional 1000-500mb
thickness reaches the 520s. All this points to the cold temps
that will be experienced across the FA during this near term
period.

Tonight will observe clear skies with the center of sfc high
pressure on the western doorsteps of the FA. This positioning
may keep winds just active enough closer to the coast to prevent
a full onslaught of radiational cooling. However inland,
especially along and west of the I-95 corridor, winds likely
to decouple under a sfc based inversion allowing min temps
to plummet to around 20. If the center is further east across
the FA, this will result in primo radiational cooling across
the entire FA which may come close to the Cold Weather Advisory
threshold of 15 degrees. Tonights sfc based cold temps will
occur eventhough WAA will be occurring aloft with progged 850mb
temps rising to the -2 to -4 degrees C spread by daybreak Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The center of high pressure will shift off the Southeast coast
just south of the local forecast area through Wed. This will
lead the way to WAA late Wed into Thurs ahead of the next cold
front. The mid to upper trough will remain broad with a flatter
flow at the base across our area. This will limit the moisture
return from the south on Thurs. Pcp water values down near a
quarter of an inch late Wed will only make it up to near .75
inches before trough aloft pushes cold front through Thurs eve.
Therefore expect an increase in cloud cover but a dry frontal
passage. Gusty SW winds on Thurs will shift around to the N-NW
behind front through Thurs eve.

Cooler weather on Wed with temps around 50 degrees, will rebound
overnight Wed into Thurs. Expect temps above freezing Wed night
with most places in the mid 30s to around 40. Thurs will
continue to warm reaching 60 or so most places. Once front
crosses the area Thurs evening, temps will drop in CAA, down
below freezing once again Thurs night. The stiff northerly
winds behind the front will make temps in the 20s feel like
teens in the pre-dawn hours Fri morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will migrate across the Carolinas Fri into the
weekend. This will allow the weekend to start out dry and cold
but will modify into early next week as warm and moist air
stream northward from the Gulf. Pcp water values down near a
quarter of an inch Fri into Sat morning will increase up near
1.5 inches by Sun night. A more active southern stream will
produce unsettled weather into next week with greater pcp
chances and warmer temps near or above normal. Temps struggling
to make 50 on Fri will be well into the 60s by Mon. Overnight
lows down well below freezing Fri night will reach back near or
above freezing by Sat night and will continue on an upward trend
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Gusty north-northwest winds will diminish late this
afternoon and become light or calm overnight as surface high
pressure ridging shifts overhead. With the high pressure center
moving offshore tomorrow, winds back to southwesterly near the
end of the TAF period. Due to very dry air, fog is not a
concern despite the expectation of good radiational cooling
conditions tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions will persist through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Decent CAA surge combined with a tightened
sfc pg will yield NNW-N winds at 15 to 20 kt with few/occasional
g25 kt at times. Not enough frequent gusts to 25+ kt to warrant
a SCA at this time. Tonight, the sfc pg relaxes-some and the
CAA ceases resulting in Northerly winds diminishing to 10-15 kt.
Seas will range between 1 ft and 4 ft thru the period. With an
offshore trajectory in the wind field, look for seas near the
coast almost pancake like, ie from Cape Fear south to Murrells
Inlet. Any 4 footers will reside across the outer waters off
Cape Fear. Wind driven waves at 3 to 5 seconds will dominate the
seas spectrum. There is an underlying SE swell progged, albeit
only around 1 foot at 8 to 9 second periods.

Wednesday through Saturday...
High pressure will migrate across the Southeast waters on Wed
with light northerly flow shifting around to the SW and
increasing late Wed into Thurs ahead of the next cold front.
SCA conditions are likely during this period with gusts possibly
up to gale force, near or above 35 kts, mainly Wed night into
Thurs. This strong southerly push will build seas up to 4 to 6
ft by Wed night with a further increase into Thurs, possibly
greater than 8 ft in the outer waters. Winds will diminish post
FROPA Thurs night into Fri as high pressure settles over the
Carolinas, diminishing to 10 to 15 kts. Seas will drop through
Fri down to 3 ft or less into Sat.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...DCH/RGZ